Special Schools, canaries down the coalmine?
Analysis of UK school stats by settings over 10 years and the impact of covid on absence rates
The UK media has a fixation with blaming lockdowns for increased absence in schools, this is despite the Department of Education's data showing that the majority of absence is due to illness.
Take a look at the graph below, what do you notice?
The graph was shared by @1goodtern on twitter, and myself and @GrayD001 shared our insights with him. Tern's full follow up thread is below, and it's worth a read.
It's also worth noting that due to concerns about increased absence, since 2021 the rules around authorising absence have become much more stringent, meaning that a portion of unauthorised absences in recent years would likely have been authorised before 2021.
I've spoken with educational welfare officers who don't believe in Long Covid.
Hypothetical Conversation Between Donald Trump and George Orwell on 1984
Setting: A dimly lit study. Orwell, in a tweed jacket, smokes a cigarette. Trump, in a dark suit and red tie, leans forward. A copy of 1984 rests between them.
Trump: George, great book. Tremendous. People always talk about 1984, say it’s more relevant than ever. Some even say it’s about me—fake news. But you, very smart guy, ahead of your time.
Orwell: Thank you. I wrote 1984 as a warning against totalitarianism, surveillance, and manipulation of truth. I assume you’ve read it?
Trump: Skimmed it. Big Brother—bad guy. But strong leadership is important. You need control, loyalty. Otherwise, chaos. Look at me—witch hunts, fake impeachments. Maybe 1984 is about my enemies controlling the narrative.
Orwell: It’s about rewriting history to suit those in power, forcing people to accept lies. “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Trump: That’s what the media does. Lies all the time. They say I lost elections I clearly won. Maybe 1984 is about media control—CNN, The New York Times. Fake news.
Orwell: Propaganda can come from media, but in 1984, the government dictates reality, erases people, punishes independent thought.
Trump: You have to fight back. People love me. Huge crowds. But tell me, was Big Brother all bad? Some say strong leadership keeps a country safe.
Orwell: There’s a difference between leadership and tyranny. In 1984, people don’t just obey Big Brother—they love him because they’re brainwashed. No freedom. No independent thought.
Trump: Sounds like cancel culture. If you don’t say the “right” things, they come after you. Maybe I’m the one fighting Big Brother.
Orwell: If 1984 were real, you wouldn’t be fighting—you’d be erased. That’s totalitarianism.
Trump: They wish they could erase me, but they can’t. I’m too big. And let’s be honest, George, if you were around today, you’d be on my side. Anti-establishment. A rebel.
Orwell: I fought against tyranny, not for personal power. The moment a leader rewrites reality for his own gain, he becomes what I warned against.
Trump: Great talk. Smart guy. But 1984 means different things to different people. Maybe I’ll write my own version—2024. Think about it. Huge seller.
Orwell: That, I have no doubt.
(Orwell takes a drag from his cigarette. Trump checks his phone. The conversation fades into the hum of history.)
GQ
Maybe you don’t want to cite known covid profiteering influencers behind accounts that may have changed hands about 3 years ago.